NFL playoff picture: What does Packers-Broncos mean for NFC & AFC standings

The NFL heads into Week 15 with several huge games on the slate, and Sunday will feature a potential Super Bowl preview (and rematch) when the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers. The game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET and by the end of it, either team could be in the top spot in their conference.

The Packers enter the game with a 9-3-1 record and have won four straight. Notably, they held off the Bears last week to take the divisional lead. The Broncos enter the game with an 11-2 record. Last week, they held off the Raiders in Las Vegas to win their tenth straight game.

Green Bay is a 2.5-point road favorite in this matchup.

Green Bay Packers playoff picture

NFC North standings

The Packers have a half game lead on the Bears and a 1.5 game lead on the Lions in the division. The Bears are hosting the Browns this week, while the Lions are on the road against the Rams. Green Bay cannot clinch a playoff berth this week, but they can move themselves into position to clinch at least a wild card berth next week with a win and a Lions loss this week.

Green Bay enters the game with a 58% chance of winning the division and hosting a wild card round game at The Athletic’s playoff simulator. A win over the Broncos would increase that to 62% while a loss would drop it to 54%.

1. Green Bay Packers: 9-3-1
2. Chicago Bears: 9-4
3. Detroit Lions: 8-5
4. Minnesota Vikings: 5-8

NFC playoff standings

The Packers are in second place, a half game back of the Rams for the No. 1 seed. While a Lions loss to the Rams helps the Packers get closer to clinching a playoff berth, a Lions upset of the Rams would be more valuable since it would open the door to the No. 1 seed. The playoff simulator gives the Packers a 10% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed. A win this week moves it to 19% and a Lions upset of the Rams added to that improves the Packers chances at a No. 1 seed to 27%. A loss this week drops their chances at the No. 1 seed to 1%.

1. Los Angeles Rams: 10-3
2. Green Bay Packers: 9-3-1
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-5
4. Carolina Panthers: 7-6
5. Seattle Seahawks: 10-3
6. San Francisco 49ers: 9-4
7. Chicago Bears: 9-4
8. Detroit Lions: 8-5
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
10. Dallas Cowboys: 6-6-1

Denver Broncos playoff picture

AFC West standings

The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win, but the earliest they can clinch the division title is next week. The Chargers are two games ahead of the Chargers, but lost the first head-to-head game with them. The two teams face off in Week 18, so it’s possible that a late Broncos collapse could turn that game into the division-decider. The Chargers are traveling to face the Chiefs this week. The Broncos enter Sunday with a 47% chance of winning the division and hosting a wild card round game. A win actually decreases that to 39% because their chances at the No. 1 seed become their most likely result. A loss improves their hosting a wild card round matchup to 56% because their chances at a No. 1 seed decline and they’re such strong division favorites.

1. Denver Broncos: 11-2
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-4
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 6-7
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-11

AFC playoff standings

Denver is in first place in the conference, holding the conference record tiebreaker over the Patriots. If both teams win out, that will also be a tie and the tiebreaker will move to common games. The Patriots Week 1 loss to the Raiders would decide that in favor of the Broncos if both teams win out. They have a 39% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed. A win improves that to 55% and a loss decreases that to 24%.

1. Denver Broncos: 11-2
2. New England Patriots: 11-2
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-4
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-4
6. Buffalo Bills: 9-4
7. Houston Texans: 8-5
8. Indianapolis Colts: 8-5
9. Baltimore Ravens: 6-7
10. Kansas City Chiefs: 6-7
11. Miami Dolphins: 6-7

Tiebreaker implications

This game has no tiebreaker implications. The Broncos were a common opponent for the Packers and Eagles, but Philadelphia beat Green Bay for the head-to-head tiebreaker, and a tie on Green Bay’s record means we likely won’t see a tiebreaker needed against Philly.

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