Welcome to the first round of the NFL playoffs! We have six games on tap for the Wild Card round, and only one game with a spread of more than 3.5-points. Each of these games should be close, as even the Rams as 10.5 favorites in Carolina, lost to the Panthers less than a couple months ago.
Close games in the playoffs are always good for fantasy points, as teams have no choice but to leave it all out on the field. For quarterbacks, that often means more rushing attempts. Josh Allen is dealing with a foot injury, but as long as he’s out there, he is running and without a strong set of receivers, he is easily the best fantasy quarterback play in the first round.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams the highest implied total, which has me high on him even though he’s not padding his stats with rushing attempts. Jalen Hurts though, he’s going to pad away against a weak 49ers defense and I expect the tush push will be used early and often in a must win playoff matchup.
QB injuries/news
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Herbert has taken a beating this season with the o-line injuries for the Chargers, but did get Week 18 off to rest. His finger injury appears to be his biggest concern, but he should be good to go in Foxboro on Sunday night.
Jordan Love, Packers
Love missed Week 17 with a concussion, but was cleared ahead of Week 18. Since the Packers were locked into the 7th seed, they rested most of their starters including Love. He should be good to go when they travel to Chicago on Saturday night for the Wild Card round.
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Purdy took a hard hit at the end of their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks. The good news is that he didn’t suffer a significant injury and his non-throwing shoulder is intact. He should be able to go against the Eagles on Sunday.
Josh Allen, Bills
Allen is dealing with a foot injury, but was able to get Week 18 off to rest and should be as healthy as possible when they travel to Jacksonville on Sunday.
Wild Card odds
Point totals
Bills at Jaguars (51.5)
Rams at Panthers (46.5)
49ers at Eagles (46.5)
Chargers at Patriots (46.5)
Packers at Bears (45.5)
Texans at Steelers (39.5)
Implied individual team totals
Rams (28.5)
Bills (26.5)
Jaguars (25)
Eagles (25)
Patriots (25)
Packers (23.5)
Bears (22)
49ers (21.5)
Chargers (21.5)
Texans (21.5)
Panthers (18)
Steelers (18)
Point spreads
Rams (-10.5) at Panthers
Texans (-3.5) at Steelers
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5)
49ers at Eagles (-3.5)
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars
Packers (-1.5) at Bears
DVOA rankings against the pass
Texans (2nd)
Rams (4th)
Eagles (5th)
Jaguars (7th)
Chargers (10th)
Bills (12th)
Steelers (13th)
Packers (18th)
Panthers (23rd)
Bears (24th)
Patriots (25th)
49ers (26th)
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