The Bears are one of the best stories in the NFL this season, yet remain an enigma. We’re approaching Week 18, Chicago is 11-5, and we still don’t really have a clear idea if this team is a legitimate contender or not. Rookie head coach Ben Johnson has done a phenomenal job by transforming the Bears into a legitimate threat — but there are still mammoth holes on the roster, a feast-or-famine defense, and maturing players who might not have the next gear required to make a deep playoff push this season.
Sunday night’s loss to the 49ers was a distillation of Chicago’s season. The Bears at their most Bears. There were amazing highs, some disappointing lows, and a spectrum of everything in between. This all comes to the fore with one phenomenal way they made history.
There’s a duality to this statistic which is impossible to ignore: Yes, the Bears lost, and made history in the process, but that happened because in so many ways Chicago is really, really good. The offense has come together with Johnson being able to successfully blend his offensive sensibilities with Caleb Williams’ skillset, which has melded the QB’s ability to improvise and make stunning plays outside the pocket, with the turnover-free precision the coach demands. Meanwhile the defense is gifted at making explosive plays, with a league-best 22 interceptions on the season, and +12 turnovers.
For all this good there’s a lot of questionable elements to the Bears which are impossible to overlook. Chicago has had the second-easiest schedule in the NFC, with only five games coming against teams who have winning records, and in these games the Bears are 3-2. Despite having such an easy schedule, the Bears only have a +29 point differential, which ranks 15th in the NFL and is worse than the 6-10 Kansas City Chiefs.
The core issue is that the Bears catch a lot of breaks, but don’t make the most of them. The defense allows a lot of teams to get back into games, or forces the Chicago offense to play catchup. The Bears only have a pressure rate of 18.9%, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks get ample time in the pocket, so it’s about preying on mistakes rather than asserting their will.
We’re still trying to work out who the Bears are. The saving grace is that the expectation never should have been for this much success this quickly under Ben Johnson, and this is a season where anyone could win this whole thing. Chicago can challenge anyone in the NFL, or be challenged by anyone else — and for this team it’s all about how many breaks they can catch along the way. In a season where it’s difficult to separate the good from the bad, the Bears are the masters of this ideal.
Now we wait to see how it will all pan out.
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